| St. Louis Five Year Consolidated Plan Strategy | |
| Issue Analysis Essay - Demographics | |
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ST. LOUIS DEMOGRAPHICS
This demographic essay examines population changes in the City of St. Louis and relates them to demand for housing. To the greatest extent possible the essay will examine population changes over the past five years and estimate changes for the next five years. Changes will be examined in the context of the development pattern of the St. Louis metropolitan area, with comparisons to patterns in other metropolitan areas. A detailed analysis of the composition of the population of the City of St. Louis will be related to planning considerations for the housing needs of population subgroups. OVERVIEW The 1990 City of St. Louis population reported by the Bureau of the Census was 396,685. The Bureau's population estimate in 1998 was 337,350. Population projections for 2003 estimate a further decline to 310,007, a loss of 21.8 percent from the 1990 census. The number of households in the City follows the pattern of the change in population. In 1990 there were 164,404 households in the City. The estimated number of households in 1998 was 142,563. The projected number of households for 2003 is 131,859, a loss of 19.8 from the number in 1990. This equals a decline in demand for about 32,500 housing units. Households with one person have a plurality in the City at 39 percent of all households. Households with 2 persons account for 27 percent and those with 3 to 4 persons for 24 percent of all households. Larger households, those with 5 or more persons, constitute 10 percent. Married couples make up just over 31 percent of households and 41 percent of married couples have children under age 18 living with them. Households headed by a single female make up 21 percent of city households and 58 percent of the single female-headed households have children under age 18. There are about 10,000 persons, or just under 3 percent of the population, living in group quarters. These basic data are only a starting point for describing the population of St. Louis. The City of St. Louis' demographic characteristics at the end of the Twentieth Century must be examined in the context of the age cohort structure and the racial and ethnic composition of the local population. Such structural features affect rates of household formation, varying demand for housing stock, and the level of demand for housing in specific geographic areas of the City and the region. In addition to population characteristics, public policies, economic structure, and consumer preferences influence choice of a residential location. While in general, structural issues affect housing investment strategies, location preferences and transportation considerations, their impact varies among different population groups. This essay will examine all of these factors in detail. ANALYSIS OF LOCAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS - METROPOLITAN The defining characteristic of the St. Louis metropolitan area for the last several decades has been a period of population stability, but geographic expansion. In the twenty years from 1970 to 1990, the metropolitan population increased by less than 7,500 people. Yet at the same time, almost 200,000 housing units were built, but very few of them in the City of St. Louis, as the size of the metropolitan area doubled from 400 to 800 square miles. The overbuilding trend has continued in the 1990's with an estimated net metropolitan population increase of 65,000 people, but more than 80,000 housing units built. As the starting point for a decentralizing pattern of development in a metropolitan area with a stagnant population base, the City has experienced an extreme level of housing vacancy and abandonment. While many older industrial cities in the Northeast and Midwest have experienced a decentralization of their population, few have been as severe as has St. Louis. The City of Kansas City, for example, increased not only in net population in the 1990's, but also in the percentage of metropolitan population in the central city. During the first seven years of the 1990's, the Kansas City metropolitan area population grew more in absolute numbers than the St. Louis area (Kansas City 143,000 - St. Louis 114,000) and the City of Kansas City increased to 26.1 percent of the metropolitan population (St. Louis fell to 13.8 percent). The type and location of new housing construction is a contributing factor to these trends. Between 1993 and 1997, there were 59,970 permits issued for housing units in the St. Louis area, of which 7,419 (12 percent) were for multifamily units. For the same time period, the Kansas City area authorized 57,489 units, 12,004 (21 percent) for multifamily units. By contrast, there were more new households in Kansas City that had to be accommodated in existing housing stock and more households having to choose multifamily housing, giving the City of Kansas City more opportunity to compete for residents. In 1990 there were 76,932 units of single family housing in the City of St. Louis. Over the next eight years, while developers built 80,374 new single family units in the St. Louis metropolitan area, 598 units were built in the City. With more than 60 percent of its housing stock in multifamily rental units, the City of St. Louis has been at a competitive disadvantage. The construction of single family housing in an ever-expanding geography in the St. Louis area has been supported by a number of public policies. National policies such as the tax deduction for mortgage interest obviously are not under local control. One policy subject to local control is the expenditure of transportation infrastructure funds. These funds have disproportionately been targeted to support the movement of households away from the central city area. This trend appears locked in for the future. The highway and road project plan approved through the year 2020 by the regional metropolitan planning organization (East West Gateway Coordinating Council) allocates $55.4 million out of $9.4 billion to the City of St. Louis. Jefferson and St. Charles counties, on the outer ring of the metropolitan area, show projects totaling approximately $660 million. Any analysis of population trends in the City of St. Louis must include consideration of trends in the metropolitan area that are inextricably linked to the population dynamics of the City. POPULATION DYNAMICS The analysis of how many people live in a given geographic area is based on examining three factors: the number of births, the number of deaths, and how many people move out or move in. This section will examine data on births and deaths. The following two sections on immigration and domestic migration will address the number of people moving in and out of the City. In the City of St. Louis during the 1990's there was decline in the numbers of both births and deaths. There were 8,255 births in 1991 and 5,979 births in 1998. There were 5,423 deaths in 1991 and 4,824 deaths in 1998. Births declined not only in absolute numbers but also in relative proportion to the number of deaths, especially in the middle years of the decade. Figure 1 shows the rate of change in births and deaths for 1991 through 1998, normalized to account for the average change over the years. Standardizing the data indicates a pattern of decline from 1991 through 1997. Births were declining at a faster rate than deaths in 1994 through 1996. While the rate of change for deaths was much above average for 1997, in 1998 the rates were at parity and were returning toward normal. The relationship between these two vital statistics will have an impact on total population change and should be closely monitored over the course of the 5-year plan. [B1-1 BIRTHS AND DEATHS: CHANGE 1991 - 1998] GENERATIONS Another changing aspect of the population of the City of St. Louis is the relative distribution of people by age groups. Because the population is not aging in place, commonly held beliefs do not necessarily apply to the City. For example, due to several factors, including that people in general are living longer, a description of the population of the State of Missouri or of the United States would include statistics about the increasing number of senior citizens. Figure B1-2 shows the relative percentage of six age groups over time. The senior citizens population in St. Louis appears to be declining not only in absolute terms, but also as a percentage of the population. This may change, however, as people live longer and as the Baby Boomers become seniors. The 25 - 44 year old group saw a large increase between 1980 and 1990 and appears to be stable in the 1990's. The 45 - 64 and 5 - 17 year old groups are moving back toward their 1980 proportions, after a decline between 1980 and 1990. The under 5 year old group has been one of the most stable, although its 1997 level is below the proportion in 1980, after slightly rising during the 1980's. And the 18 - 24 year old group appears to be maintaining its relative proportion in the 1990's, after a significant drop in the 1980's. [B1-2 AGE COHORTS 1980 - 1997] An alternative method of analyzing the age distribution of people in a population is to divide them into groups based roughly on the decade in which they were born. These groups are given the popular names of the Pre-War generation (persons born prior to 1946), the Baby Boom generation (born between 1946 and 1964), the Baby Bust generation (born between 1967 and 1979) and the Echo Boom generation (born between 1980 and 1995). The Baby Boom generation is famous for the large number of people, all relatively the same age, and the impact they are having on a range of policy and consumer issues as they have moved from childhood to young adults and are now starting to turn 50 years old. As seen in Figure B1-3 for the Missouri graph line, the Baby Boomers show a notable rise in numbers compared to the generation before and after them. This is not, however, the case in the City of St. Louis. The so-called Baby Bust generation, the group that followed the Boomers in the generation when, for a variety of reasons fewer babies were born, represents the largest generational group in the City. The City has obviously lost a significant number of Baby Boomers. A housing policy issue of no small importance is how many people from the Baby Bust generation, who are now 20-35 years old, the first time homebuyer age, can the City hold on to. [B1-3 GENERATIONAL GROUPS: MISSOURI AND ST. LOUIS] The PRIZM/Claritas population estimates for 1998 record that the population of the City of St. Louis is majority African American, with 175,446 African Americans and 156,886 whites (other racial groups are estimated to make up about 1.5 percent of the population). The distribution of the population by race varies considerably across generation groups. As Table 1 shows, three of the four generation groups are predominately white, especially the Pre War generation, which is 58 percent white. Over two thirds of the Echo Boom generation, however, is African American. Within racial groups, the Echo Boomers are the largest African American group, representing 31 percent of the African American population. The pre war generation is the largest of the four groups within the white population at 29 percent. [B1-4 1997 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE] An examination of total population numbers for the City of St. Louis fails to reveal the complexity of the population structure. Analysis of St. Louis so often is focused on the change in total population over the last 4 or 5 decades. There must be a more detailed evaluation of the current population if valid projections are to be made for policies and programs in future years. IMMIGRATION There are apparent changes over the last five years in the dynamics of immigration and its affect on the demography of the City of St. Louis. Until 1990, racial and ethnic groups other than African Americans and whites comprised only 1.5 percent of the population of St. Louis. As recorded in the 1990 census, the largest minority groups other than African Americans were the Asian groups of Chinese (5,325), Japanese (3,522), and Koreans (3,108). Early in the 1990's there was a change in the place of origin of immigrants. In 1992, the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) reported the countries of origin of the largest groups of immigrants were Vietnam (15.3 percent), India (6.4 percent), Korea (6.2 percent), and Mexico (6.2 percent). The number of immigrants was still relatively small, according to official statistics. For example, the INS reported in 1992 a total of 2,078 persons immigrated here. Those numbers can be deceptively small, however, according to the International Institute of St. Louis. The Institute provides services to immigrant households in St. Louis. The Institute reports an increasing pattern in St. Louis of secondary immigration. After the persons reported on the INS records move here, other members of their families, or friends, relocate to St. Louis from other cities in the United States. There is no tracking system to document since the 1990 census the number of persons who are secondary immigrants here. There are indications the place of origin and the number of immigrants to St. Louis changed dramatically in the later portion of the 1990's, to the point there are obvious impacts on specific City neighborhoods. Recent immigrants reflect the traditional pattern so prevalent during the great European migration of 100 years ago of creating identifiable neighborhood areas. As a source for documenting immigration patterns in the last several years, a study was conducted of the English as a second language (ESL) program in City public schools. The St. Louis Public Schools provided data on students enrolled in the ESL program for 1997 through 1999. The data was analyzed to identify the location by zipcode of the student's residence at the time of their enrollment, and their national origin. While students in the ESL program live in 25 zipcodes, eighty-five percent of the students came from four zipcodes: 63116 (38 percent), 63109 (19 percent), 63118 (18 percent), and 63111 (10 percent). The ethnic diversity in the 63116 zipcode is the most complex. The ESL records document places of birth from 28 nations in this zipcode with the largest number of Bosnians in ESL records as well as significant numbers of Vietnamese, Iraqis, and other groups. Immigrants to the 63109 zipcode are predominately Bosnian. The 63109 zipcode had the second largest group of Bosnians in the ESL program, but students from only 5 other national groups. The 63118 zipcode shows indications of greater diversity, with not only a large group of Bosnians, but also ESL students from 16 other national groups, particularly Mexicans and Somalians. The ESL program for the past three years has predominately-included students of Bosnian origin. While the ESL program reports students from 47 national origins during this time period, ninety percent of the students have come from 10 ethnic groups. The top 10 places of birth for ESL students for the last three years were: Bosnia 64 percent Vietnam 5 percent Mexico 5 percent Somalia 4 percent Albania 4 percent Iraq 3 percent Nigeria 1 percent Croatia 1 percent Afghanistan 1 percent Ethiopia 1 percent This data should not be considered definitive of the numbers of immigrants, the location of their residence in the City, or proportions of various national groups. The data does provide an indication that there are recent changes in immigration that may be affecting the demography of St. Louis. The affect may be under-represented in current population estimates for the City. For example, the PRIZM/Claritas estimate for the 63116-zipcode area calculates a population decline of approximately 16.5 percent from 1990 to 1998. The ESL data, however, provides figures showing that there probably has been a substantial number of immigrants' move into this area. The problem of a population undercount also may be a consequence in the 2000 Census if language and other cultural issues are not considered in the Census forms and personnel training. DOMESTIC MIGRATION When the 1990 census figures were reported, there was great confidence expressed by many public figures that St. Louis had 'turned the corner' and had overcome the huge out migrations of the 1960's and 1970's. From 1980 to 1990 the net domestic migration was 75,406. That represented nearly a 60 percent drop from the out migration of just over 180,000 people from both 1960 to 1970 and 1970 to 1980. The Census Bureau estimates for 1990 through 1998 show a net out migration from the City of 81,710. If this estimate is validated by the decennial census to be conducted in spring 2000, and depending on what happens in the last two years of the decade, the rate of domestic migration will show a minor increase in the 1990's after the major decline in the 1980's. The estimates for total population change during the period 1990 to 1998, including births, deaths, and the movement of people, prepared by PRIZM/Claritas indicate patterns of change at the neighborhood level. Looking at the City in the three general areas of northside, central corridor, and southside, there is a nearly identical population loss on the north (29,394) and south (29,539) sections and a modest (662) population gain in the central corridor. Within these general areas, there are some neighborhood clusters that appear to be more severely impacted than others are. The northside neighborhoods of Visitation Park, Academy, and Fountain Park are three of the five neighborhoods with the largest percentage loss of population (19 to almost 23 percent). Just north of them, The Greater Ville and Wells/Goodfellow neighborhoods were among the top five neighborhoods in the number of people lost between 1990 and 1998 (over 5,000 between them). The Fox Park and Forest Park Southeast neighborhoods on the southside had high percentage losses of population (22 and 27 percent). The Bevo Mill, Tower Grove South and Dutchtown neighborhoods were reported to have lost high numbers of people, but the immigration discussion above raises a question regarding the accuracy of the estimation in this area. Compton Heights was the only neighborhood outside of the central corridor to show both a high percentage and numerical change in population. Downtown, the Skinker/DeBaliviere, and DeBaliviere Place neighborhoods showed the highest percentage and numerical gains. (The Koskiusko neighborhood statistically ranked in the top five, but this is an industrial area with no resident population.) WELFARE REFORM The 1996 welfare reform act (Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act) passed by Congress provided that within two years, program recipients had to be in an employment related activity. Employment activity is defined as a job, job training, or job search. Through 1999 employment activity also was defined as consisting of at least 20 hours per week. In January 2000, however, the time requirement goes to 30 hours per week. The act established a five-year lifetime limitation on receiving assistance. These changes have had, at one level, an impact on the City of St. Louis that is easy to quantify. The pending affects over the next several years are much more challenging to calculate. Welfare reform replaced the decades old Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program with Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF). In January 1993 there were 60,030 individuals receiving AFDC assistance in the City of St. Louis. In January 1999 there were 39,791 individuals receiving income maintenance assistance through TANF, a drop of over one-third. The rate of transitioning from assistance to employment activity in St. Louis was considerably below the statewide rate for Missouri. Over the same time period, the number of persons on TANF assistance in Missouri was reduced by 47.2 percent. There are at least two aspects of welfare reform that are difficult to quantify, but could have a significant impact on housing and social service programs over the course of the 5 year plan.
POVERTY The number of persons in poverty in the City of St. Louis appears to be declining over the course of the 1990's, although the estimated numbers are above the level of poverty recorded in the 1990 census. At the time of the 1990 census there were 95,271 poor persons in the City. By 1993, after the recession in the early years of the decade, the number of persons in poverty had risen to 118,802. In 1996, the number had declined to 102,132, or 29.5 percent of the City's population. The data for the years after the 1990 census are estimates. The Census Bureau estimates the number of persons in poverty, but also reports a 90 percent confidence interval. That means it was most likely the actual number of persons in poverty in St. Louis in 1996 (the most recent year for which data are available) was somewhere between 82,494 and 121,770. The large number of people included in the domestic migration figure cited above has an impact on the poverty statistics. Because those persons moving out are disproportionately middle income, the percentage of persons in poverty increases to about 30 percent, even as the absolute number of persons in poverty declines. The residual effect of the out migration is a City population that is an increasingly poor population. At the same time the rate of poverty increases, the geography of poverty expands. As indicated in the City's 1998 Empowerment Zone application, about three fourths of its census tracts have at least 15 percent persons living in poverty, and an increasing number of tracts (at least 20) have poverty rates of 40 to 74 percent. While the number of persons in poverty is a large percentage of the City's population, among children the number is approaching a majority. For 1996, the estimated number of persons in poverty under the age of 18 is 43,875 (or somewhere between 35,011 and 52,749). This is an estimated percentage of 47.7 percent. While the estimates for the total number of persons in poverty may show a decline over the course of the 1990's, the number of children in poverty may be increasing. As an indicator, while the percentage of students receiving free/reduced lunch in St. Louis Public Schools declined from 84.3 percent in the 1993-1994 school year, to 80.88 percent in the 1997-1998 school year, the number of children participating increased from 34,743 to 35,945. Because the district enrollment increased over the time period, the percentage declined, even while the number of poor students actually increased. Another indicator of the potentially increasing number of children in poverty is that 86.7 percent of the births for the period 1993 - 1997 were to single mothers. CHILDREN A 1997 study produced by a nonprofit organization that conducts research to address the needs of children and families at serious socio-economic risk rated zipcodes in the four county core of the St. Louis metropolitan area based on 19 indicators. The indicators were grouped into economic, maternal and child health, community environment, and family functioning and mental health categories. A composite ranking for each zipcode was created by comparing the number of indicators worse than normal to the total number of indicators for which data were included for that zipcode. Zipcodes where 75 to 100 percent of the indicators were worse than normal were termed 'severe'. Of the 111 zipcodes studied, 23 were ranked severe. Ten of those zipcodes are in the City of St. Louis. All but two of the zipcodes in the City were ranked either severe or high (50 to 75 percent worse than normal). Table B1-2 compares national norms for a selected group of indicators in the study to the data for the most severe zipcodes in the City. As the data show, conditions in these areas of St. Louis are not only worse than the national average, they often are many times a multiple of the average. For example, for percent of births with late or no pre-natal care, the percentage in the St. Louis zipcodes is anywhere from about 5 to nearly 8 times the US average. The variety of indicators included in the study document that children in these areas are challenged throughout their childhood and teenage years by inadequate health care, dysfunctional family support, low educational achievement and poor employment prospects. [B1-5 INDICATORS OF CHILDREN AT RISK: COMPARISON OF US AND ST. LOUIS DATA (BY ZIPCODE)] In the short term, there are fewer young children in the City. As indicated in the vital statistics discussion above, the number of live births in the City declined 26.5 percent from 1992 to 1997. But the trend toward more children in poverty is likely to increase among those that have been born. For the same time period, 86.7 percent of African American births were to unmarried mothers. In addition, 23 percent of births during the period 1993 to 1997 were to mothers age 19 or under. The likelihood of loosing children in more financially secure households continues. Over one-third of white mothers (37.3 percent) were age 30 or older at the birth of their child from 1992 to 1997. Mothers who have delayed childbirth in many cases have greater financial resources and have been among the outmigrants from the City. SCHOOLS: DESEGREGATION AND CHARTER Since a suit was filed in 1972 to desegregate the public schools of the City of St. Louis, a combination of court action and voluntary agreements produced a program by 1983 that allowed up to 13,000 city students each year to enroll in any of 16 county districts. In 1998 the Missouri legislature approved a bill that established a framework for ending the desegregation program. There are two provisions of the settlement agreement that resulted from the legislation that can affect parent choice of where their children will attend school.
For sixteen years African American parents in the City have had the option of continuing to live in the City while their children attend school in a county district. As a result of the settlement, it is likely that parents who would choose not to send their children to City schools will need to move to provide the educational choice they had previously in the desegregation program. It is too early to tell whether or not losing that option will affect their choice of residence. The same legislation that provided a structure for settling the desegregation case also created the authority for the establishment of charter schools in the St. Louis and Kansas City school districts. Charter schools are allowed some regulatory freedom from state department of education oversight and operate separate from the jurisdiction of the school board of the public school district. While a number of charter schools have been opened in Kansas City, the efforts of several organizations have not yet been successful in creating the educational option of charter schools in St. Louis. PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES The 1990 Census recorded just over 37,000 noninstitutionalized St. Louis residents with a mobility or self-care disability. These data show the majority (62 percent) of persons with disabilities are female and that self-care limitations are more prevalent (41 percent) than persons with a mobility limitation or a mobility and self-care limitation. The Census Bureau does not update census figures for persons with disabilities when they calculate annual population estimates. A current source of information of persons with disabilities is persons receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) from the Social Security Administration. The 1998 records show 18,972 SSI recipients in the City of St. Louis. Most of the recipients (17,018) received benefits as blind and disabled rahter than as aged. Additional SSI information reports that the majority of recipients (61 percent) are age 18 - 64, with nearly equal numbers of persons age 18 or less (18 percent) or 65 and over (18 percent). CONCLUSIONS Several inferences appear applicable from the demographic data discussed above. The City will continue to be challenged to retain and/or attract residents due to:
Housing and social service program needs for persons in poverty, especially households with children will likely increase due to:
There are opportunities to take advantage of changing demographic trends:
The population of persons with disabilities does not appear to be changing significantly over time, but it is a large number of people and their special housing and social service needs should be addressed in program planning. RESOURCES Transportation Redefined II, East West Gateway Coordinating Council, 1999 Where We Stand, East West Gateway Coordinating Council, 1999 St. Louis Trends, East West Gateway Coordinating Council, 1996 St. Louis Currents, Focus St. Louis, 1997 The Peirce Report, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 1997 Connett III Frank Davis, Projecting Population at the Census Block Group Level Within the St. Louis Metropolitan Area, Master's Thesis, University of Missouri-Columbia, 1995 The St. Louis Region in Motion: Trends and Opportunities for 2020...and Beyond, RCGA, 1997 Legal Immigration, Fiscal Year 1998, Immigration and Naturalization Service, U.S. Department of Justice, 1999 Building Permits: St. Louis, MO-IL Single Family Permits, Real Estate Center, Texas A&M University, 1999 Berson, David W. The importance of demographics in economic analysis: the ususal suspects Business Economics January 1997 Kids Count in Missouri 1998, The Children's Trust Fund, 1998 The Children of Metropolitan St. Louis 1997, Project Respond and Vision for Children at Risk, 1997 Foot, David K. and Daniel Stoffman Boom, Bust & Echo Stoddart Publishing, 1997 Top 100 Significant Variables Report, Easidemographics, 1999 Data and Statistical Reports, Missouri Department of Health, 1999 1990 Census, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis, University of Missouri Database Extractions, B&PA Research Center, University of Missouri Income and Poverty Profile for Missouri Counties, Missouri State Census Data Center Phares, Donald, Population Migration Affecting the St. Louis City School District, 1998 Community Profile, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1992 Greater St. Louis Regional Empowerment Zone Application, 1998 |